2026 Midterm Election Lookahead

2026 Midterm Election Lookahead

While it is still very early to forecast results for the 2026 midterm election, strategies and trends which are likely to impact the trajectory of the election are taking shape. Current data suggests Democrats will be unlikely to make significant gains and that Republicans are positioned for a better than average electoral performance. Under this scenario, Democrats would narrowly win control of the House and Republicans would hold or expand their majority in the Senate. Key takeaways include:

In 2026, Democrats will have fewer opportunities to flip seats in the House and Senate, as the number of competitive seats is considerably lower than in previous elections.

Today, the Democratic Party is more than twice as unpopular as the Republican Party.

As of September 2025, Democrats lead in generic ballot polls by an average of 3.9%. This is a lower margin than Democrats have led by in recent midterm elections like 2018, where Republicans controlled the White House and Democrats led generic ballot polls by 8.4%.

President Trump’s approval rating from voters is consistent with President Biden’s at this point in his first term in 2021, and is considerably better than the approval rating Trump had at this point in his first term in 2017.

Congressional redistricting could affect which party controls the House. To what extent cannot be determined until mid-decade redistricting efforts in Texas, California, and elsewhere play out.

Republicans have significantly closed the gap in overall party registrations. This trend is on track to continue and will likely mean that Democratic candidates will have diminished support from their base in upcoming elections, while Republicans will have new voters to turnout.

Currently, Americans have a generally negative, but trending increasingly positive, view of the U.S. economy. The number of Americans with a poor view of the economy has decreased over the past year while the number of Americans describing the economy as fair, good, or excellent has increased. This is a positive trend for incumbent Republicans and would likely mean a strong Republican showing in the midterms if it continues. Should the economic situation deteriorate in the next year, it will likely drive President Trump’s approval rating lower, adversely impact the net favorability advantage Republicans currently have.

Trump and Republicans have focused on two main issues, immigration and crime, which both poll favorably for Republicans across the political spectrum and puts Democrats in difficult positions to defend their policies on those issues.

The Virginia governor’s race, which takes place this year, has traditionally been won by the party opposite of the one in the White House and Democrats are well positioned to win.

AGS will be closely monitoring developments that could impact the 2026 midterm elections and will provide relevant updates. AGS will also provide political modeling and analysis through the election.

You can read the full AGS 2026 Midterm Election Lookahead Report at the link below:

2026 Midterm Election Lookahead

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