At midnight tonight the federal government will likely shut down as efforts to reach an agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats stall. Tonight, at approximately 5pm, the Senate will vote on two proposals to fund the government, one is the GOP proposal passed by the House, which is a continuing resolution through November 21, the other is the Democratic counterproposal. Both votes require 60 votes and will fail. The House and Senate have both issued guidance to prepare for operations and the furlough of Congressional staffers, the Office of Personnel Management has likewise issued guidance for the widespread furlough of the federal workforce, except for essential employees.
House and Senate Democrats are publicly unified, but it is unclear if the mainstream and progressive wings of the party will remain united once the shutdown begins and Democrats likely are blamed. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly floated a stopgap funding proposal for a week to keep the government open for continued negotiations though he later rejected that option. Many progressive Democrats in the House criticized Schumer for this as a capitulation to Republicans before negotiations could really begin.
Yesterday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader John Thune, and Schumer went to the White House for a meeting with President Trump. Reportedly, Democrats were still not in agreement about their “bottom line” to agree to keep the government open but floated extension of the enhanced Obamacare tax credits and ending Trump’s ability to unilaterally cut funding. While the eventual end of the shutdown will probably include a compromise on the Obamacare tax credit, Republicans are urging Trump to not offer any compromises until after the shutdown begins.
Politically, Republicans maintain the upper hand in negotiations. Republican lawmakers have stated they are willing to negotiate after an agreement on keeping the federal government open under a continuing resolution while Democrats are approaching talks with a list of demands and preconditions before agreeing to the CR. A recent New York Times poll showed that a wide majority of Americans oppose Democrats shutting down the government, with even 43 percent of Democrat voters opposing a shutdown.
The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings if a government shutdown happens. It could specifically include employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue. In a memo by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), agencies were instructed to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse October 1 and no alternative funding source is available. For those areas, OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown. After the Trump administration encouraged agencies to conduct further reductions in force, the Office of Personnel Management is now clarifying that any work involving RIFs should be considered “excepted activities,” and can continue throughout a government shutdown. According to officials within OMB, programs that will continue regardless of a shutdown include Social Security, Medicare, veteran’s benefits, military operations, law enforcement, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection and air traffic control.
By using the threat of permanent job cuts as leverage, the White House is raising the stakes for Democrats, who’s inaction could imperil their other priorities. The OMB memo notes that if Congress successfully passes a clean stopgap bill prior to Sept. 30, the steps outlined would not be necessary.
The House and Senate issued guidelines for representatives and senators to plan for the lapse in appropriations. Excepted/essential employees will help members of Congress fulfill their constitutional duties and conduct activities that “entail the safeguarding of human life and the protection of property.” Representatives and Senators will decide which employees are essential/excepted. The Capitol Visitors Center will be closed, only Member-led tours of the Capitol are allowed, and House and Senate offices will remain open with limited access points and likely limited Congressional staff. All events (except for official committee proceedings) will be cancelled.
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AGS will continue to monitor the budgetary process, political developments on Capitol Hill, and impacts to federal departments and agencies and provide updates as necessary.
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