Anthony Ruggiero, AGS Senior Vice President
On October 26, Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran responding to the October 1 missile barrage, when Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted that the strike severely damaged Iran’s ability to defend itself and produce missiles aimed at Israel.
Israel’s response, which consisted of aircraft fired missiles, focused on targeting military sites, including missile production and storage facilities within Iran. Destroying such sites would greatly disrupt Iran’s ability to manufacture new ballistic missiles to replenish its arsenal after the two attacks on Israel. Israeli officials opted not to target Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, following pressure from the U.S. to limit the response in order to avoid escalation. According to Israeli officials, Israeli pilots successfully hit their targets and all aircraft completed their missions and returned to Israel.
It is unclear exactly how many Iranian sites were targeted, but Iranian officials have identified affected provinces as being in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran. Current damage assessments from satellite imagery show damaged buildings at Iran’s Parchin military base, where the International Atomic Energy Agency suspects Iran in the past conducted tests of high explosives that could be used to trigger a nuclear weapon. Damage could also be seen at the nearby Khojir military base, which analysts believe hides an underground tunnel system and missile production sites. Other buildings destroyed at Khojir and Parchin likely included a warehouse and other buildings where Iran used industrial mixers to create the solid fuel needed for its ballistic missiles. One factory appeared to have been hit in Shamsabad Industrial City, just south of Tehran near Imam Khomeini International Airport.
While the strike on a facility associated with Iran’s past nuclear weapons program is noteworthy, it probably will have no impact on Tehran’s current nuclear program. The strike on the solid propellant facilities is significant and, if the initial reports are verified that Israel destroyed specialized equipment, it could delay Iran’s ability to replenish its missile stockpile.
Iran sought to downplay the effectiveness of the strike in its wake, initially claiming that air traffic was uninterrupted and missile defenses were successfully intercepting Israeli missiles. Iran has not acknowledged damage at either of the targeted military bases, though it said the attacks killed four Iranian soldiers who were operating air defense systems. The day after the attack, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the Israeli attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” while stopping short of calling for an immediate retaliatory strike. Before Israel’s strike, Iran had publicly vowed to respond immediately to any attack. Recent comments from Iranian leaders suggest Iran is reconsidering that position.
The Israeli strike was a short-term success damaging Iran’s ballistic missile program and reinforcing that Jerusalem can use its intelligence on Iran’s programs for precision strikes while also defeating Iran’s air defense systems. Israel may regret pulling back from striking Iran’s oil facilities, which generates revenue used to fund the proxies attacking Israel, and not striking the active nuclear program. While Israel can celebrate this success, it may have created a medium- or long-term vulnerability by reinforcing to Iran’s Supreme Leader that Israel can strike at any moment. That could drive Tehran to cross the threshold and develop nuclear weapons as an ultimate hedge against further Israeli strikes.
AGS will monitor the situation and provide updates should there be any significant developments.
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