Anthony Ruggiero, Senior Vice President
Yesterday, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for their highly anticipated summit in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war and potential paths to peace. Ahead of the meeting, Trump sought to manage expectations, saying the meeting was to set conditions for a follow up meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Trump and Putin, along with 2 other close advisors each, spoke for over 3 hours. The meeting produced no significant breakthroughs or agreement. However, Trump and Putin both reported the meeting was productive and based on mutual respect. One consequential outcome from the meeting is that Trump has appeared to drop his insistence on a ceasefire prior to further talks and Trump will now be meeting with Zelensky on Monday in Washington to discuss reaching a deal with Russia that would likely include land exchanges, sanctions relief on Russia, and a pause or end to the current conflict. Upon arriving back in Washington from Alaska, Trump posted on Truth Social, “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.”
Monday’s Oval Office meeting will be pivotal for Zelenskyy who will try to avoid repeating the disastrous February meeting. Zelenskyy can do that by focusing on optics – acknowledging Trump’s focus on appearance and wearing a suit – and substance – reminding Trump that Putin started the war and is simply buying time to make additional advances on the ground. Zelenskyy should accept a trilateral summit with Putin and Trump to show that he is ready to end the war.
Negotiating a peace agreement must address five challenges:
- New Ukraine and Russia Borders: critical for both sides and the most difficult issue. The war will end with a negotiated resolution of Crimea and eastern Ukraine regions. Zelenskyy will push for a return to 2022 borders but the U.S. and possibly Europe may not support that approach.
- Security assurances: official NATO membership is likely off the table but developing a combination of European and U.S. security assurances that go beyond previous agreements will be important to Ukraine. Putin will object because the assurances will complicate his future ambitions.
- European peacekeepers: this is linked to the security assurances, the U.S. will not put troops in Ukraine, but European countries could provide an added security assurance at the negotiated borders to prevent further Russian incursions into Ukrainian territory.
- Rebuild and Rearm Ukraine: Russia will object to both paying for rebuilding Ukraine and any efforts to rearm Ukraine to a level sufficient to deter future Russian attacks.
- U.S.-Russia and Europe-Russia Relationships: the status of U.S. and European sanctions on Russia will be guided by the post-peace agreement relationship with Russia. Some sanctions could remain for Russia’s support to Iran and North Korea, as well as Putin’s use of chemical weapons against dissidents. Putin will push for a renewed U.S.-Russia relationship focused on arms control and economic benefits for both sides, which will be largely dependent on resolution of the other challenges and the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.
AGS will continue to monitor developments in the Ukraine War and peace agreement discussions and provide relevant updates as needed.
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