August 19, 2025

Anthony Ruggiero
Senior Vice President

Marvin Park

Sean Calabria
Vice President & Director of Research

Rob Pierce

Yesterday, President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a bilateral meeting and subsequent meetings alongside other European leaders to discuss a path to ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. The meetings followed President Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. European leaders participating included: French President Emmanuel Macron, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte. The meetings between Trump and Zelenskyy struck a notably more positive tone than Zelenskyy’s previous White House visit in February.

During the series of meetings, Trump reiterated that he believes Putin is ready to make peace in Ukraine. During a private meeting in the Oval Office, Trump and Zelenskyy reportedly discussed possible territorial exchanges using a map of Ukraine’s east, which detailed the line of control between Russian and Ukrainian forces. European leaders appeared united in their support for Ukraine’s interest in ending the war on terms that will maintain Kyiv’s sovereignty and independence along with a western security guarantee. However, details on what territorial exchanges or specifics on western security guarantees remain unclear.

Zelenskyy reportedly has offered to purchase $100 billion of U.S. military equipment, to be financed by Europe, which Trump welcomed. Zelenskyy and Trump likewise expressed interest in the U.S. investing $50 billion in Ukraine drone industry post-war.

Following the meetings, Russia’s foreign ministry seemed to backtrack on assurances it gave to Special Envoy Steve Witkoff that a NATO Article Five like security guarantee for Ukraine that includes European security forces inside Ukraine could be agreed to by Moscow if its other territorial demands were met. President Trump has reportedly directed Secretary of State Rubio to work with European leaders on drafting detailed plans for a possible security guarantee.

Trump posted on Truth Social that the meeting was “a very good, early step” towards peace. He said security guarantees were discussed and would be provided by European countries with the United States assuming a coordination role. Trump also stated that he called Putin after the meetings to begin making arrangements on next steps, which included a proposal for a direct bilateral Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, followed by a trilateral Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. The planned bilateral and trilateral meetings could push the negotiations forward if it produces a framework for future discussions.

While the Alaska and Washington meetings were steps forward toward a resolution of the conflict, it could be a long road to a peace agreement. As outlined in AGS’ previous update, negotiations of a peace agreement must address five key challenges, including new Ukraine and Russia borders, security assurances for Ukraine, European peacekeepers, reconstruction and rearmament of Ukraine’s military, and Russia’s relationship with the West. That report is available here.

Trump has pushed both sides to the negotiating table and provided an opportunity to end the conflict. Zelenskyy understands that U.S. security assurances, even without U.S. troops in Ukraine, are more valuable than European security assurances alone. Zelenskyy’s successful August visit could pay dividends in the future if Putin is seen as delaying the negotiations because he believes Russia can make additional territorial gains and delay Trump’s threats of additional sanctions and tariffs.

AGS will continue to monitor developments in the Ukraine War and peace agreement discussions and provide relevant updates as needed.

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