Sean Calabria, Associate Vice President & Director of Research
Summary
On March 11, 2025, following high-level talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire of its ongoing conflict with Russia, marking a significant shift in the war. The ceasefire is contingent upon Russia’s acceptance, can be extended by mutual agreement, and paves the way for negotiations toward a permanent peace. The agreement coincides with the resumption of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv, signaling a renewed American commitment to Ukraine amidst evolving foreign policy dynamics under the Trump administration. President Trump said that he will invite President Zelensky back to the White House. Russia’s response to the proposal will determine the ceasefire’s viability. President Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, is reportedly set to visit Russia this week, suggesting diplomatic channels are opening.
Background
The ceasefire proposal emerged after more than seven hours o fnegotiations in Jeddah, involving key figures such as Secretary of State Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Ukrainian officials including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Ukrainian President Zelensky’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on March 10underscored Saudi Arabia’s role as a neutral mediator. The U.S.-Ukraine joint statement issued after the talks concluded said that both countries’ presidents will conclude a comprehensive agreement for Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, highlighting economic incentives are tied to peace efforts and providing an economic security assurance for Ukraine.
The timing is notable, just hours before the announcement, Ukraine launched what it claimed was its largest-ever drone attack on Moscow, killing at least three and damaging infrastructure, including a major oil refinery. This escalation may have been a strategic move to strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position. Concurrently, the Trump administration’s decision to lift a prior suspension of aid, paused amid tensions between Zelensky and Trump, reflects a recalibration of U.S. policy, with Rubio stating the ceasefire offers a path to “end this conflict in a way that’s enduring and sustainable.”
The U.S.-Ukraine statement said they would each “name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security.”
Geopolitical Implications
For Ukraine the ceasefire could offer a temporary reprieve from a war that has devastated its economy and infrastructure. Accepting the U.S. proposal signals Kyiv’s willingness to compromise, possibly under pressure from waning domestic resources and the need for restored Western support. However, Ukraine’s initial proposal for a limited air and sea truce suggests lingering distrust of Russia’s intentions, fearing Moscow could exploit a pause tore group.
Russia’s response remains uncertain. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that “there are no negotiations yet,” indicating reluctance or await-and-see approach. The drone attacks on Moscow could harden Russia’s stance, though the prospect of reduced hostilities and potential economic relief from sanctions might incentivize the agreement’s acceptance. On March 7, Trump threatened Russia with large scale tariffs and sanctions if it did not negotiate an end to the war.
The ceasefire reflects the Trump administration’s desire to expedite an end to the war as Secretary Rubio has emphasized. Resuming aid aligns with this goal, balancing concessions with continued support for Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s mediation role enhances its status as a geopolitical broker, while NATO and European allies, some of whom are planning a post-ceasefire security force, watch closely, wary of U.S. dominance in the process.
Potential Outcomes
- Successful Implementation: If Russia agrees, the 30-day ceasefire could extend by mutual consent,providing a window for comprehensive peace talks. This might involveterritorial concessions, prisoner exchanges, sanctions relief, and agreementson Ukraine’s mineral resources, potentially stabilizing the region.
- Breakdown and Escalation: Russia’s rejection or violation of the ceasefire, perhaps citing the Moscow drone attack, could reignite fighting, lead to increased sanctions on Russia, straining U.S.-Ukraine ties and testing Trump’s resolve. Ukraine’s military position might weaken without sustained aid.
- Partial Success: A limited truce, such as the UK and France proposed air and maritime only ceasefire, could emerge as a compromise, reducing civilian casualties but leaving land conflicts unresolved, prolonging the war’s stalemate.
AGS will continue to monitor developments on the negotiations to end theUkraine war and provide updates as necessary.
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