Anthony Ruggiero, AGS Senior Vice President
On October 1, Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Currently, there are reports of minor injuries. The missiles were launched in two waves and Iran said it was a response to the killings of Hamas political chief Haniyeh inside Iran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranians killed in recent strikes. Israel’s military said the Iranian attack will have consequences. There are reports of a terrorist attack in Tel Aviv with four dead and at least 10 injured.
Over the past few weeks, Israel has devastated Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror organization and Iran proxy, after months of cross border skirmishes and exchanges of fire. On September 17, Israel remotely detonated thousands of pager devices packed with explosives in the pockets of the Hezbollah operatives. The incident was an unprecedented covert operation by Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus which resulted in dozens of deaths and about 3,000 Hezbollah operatives wounded.
Israel continued its campaign against Hezbollah by targeting its senior leadership and weapons stockpiles in airstrikes. The prelude to a ground invasion culminated in an airstrike that killed Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime commander, at the terror organization’s headquarters.
Now, as Israeli ground forces enter southern Lebanon, Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel. The U.S. coordinated with the Israeli military to prepare to blunt any potential attack by shooting down missiles as they exit Iranian airspace. The low casualty numbers could highlight the Israeli and American successful defense efforts. Or Iran could have launched missiles toward low population areas.
Iran’s geopolitical objectives maybe to escalate to deescalate. Israeli and U.S. officials identified preparations for the attack and the missile launch was expected several hours later. This indicates that Tehran may have wanted to signal to Washington and Jerusalem that it would launch an attack but not move beyond that into a full-scale war. Iran informed the U.S. shortly before the attacks began.
An Israeli official stated, “This attack will have consequences. We have plans, and we will operate at the place and time we decide.” Israel has already demonstrated that it can target Iran’s military radar and air defense infrastructure, putting Iran’s nuclear facilities at risk. And Israel has shown a willingness to take additional risk to eliminate threats. Netanyahu knows that Israel’s efforts to defang Hamas and Hezbollah has reduced Tehran’s deterrence of Israel and the next move for the Islamic Republic is sprinting toward a nuclear weapon. Jerusalem could use a strike at Iran’s nuclear program to prevent that outcome. There is an outstanding question of whether Iran has already fortified its nuclear program to withstand that attack and emerge with a nuclear weapon.
AGS will monitor the situation and provide updates should there be any significant developments.
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