Israel
Despite mounting pressure from the Biden Administration on the Netanyahu government, Israel’s military has continued its offensive into the southern part of Gaza. On May 29, Israeli tanks entered central Rafah. On May 30, Israeli forces claimed “tactical control” of the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt. The move is strategically significant for Israel’s military operation because it effectively encircles Gaza and places all land crossings –with which Gaza relies upon for humanitarian aid – under Israel’s control.
On June 8, Netanyahu’s defiance of international pressure paid off, as Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an operation in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza that resulted in the successful rescue and safe return of four hostages. While details are still forthcoming, the operation reportedly resulted in the death of 274 Palestinians. In response, Hamas officials have commented after the June 8 operation that conditions for the remaining hostages will worsen due to the need to increase its security environment.
Israel’s continued military operations are likely to raise tensions with Egypt, which has opposed Israel’s military activity along its border. On May 27, at least one Egyptian soldier was killed in a shooting incident with Israeli forces near the Rafah border crossing; both sides say they are investigating the matter.
Israel’s forces have continued to launch airstrikes targeting Hamas fighters. However, several recent strikes near refugee camps resulted in numerous reported civilian deaths, leading to more calls on Israel to halt its operations.
On May 30, Israel’s National Security Adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, said he expected Israel’s military operations in Gaza to continue through at least the end of the year, stating, “We expect another seven months of combat in order to shore up our achievement and realize what we define as the destruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad’s military and governing capabilities.” His remarks indicate the war would likely not end after the military offensive against Hamas in Rafah.
Calls have increased among American progressives who oppose Israel’s military operation for the Biden Administration to halt certain weapons deliveries to Israel, following the civilian death toll of Israel’s recent strikes. Reportedly, the munitions used by Israel in several of these recent incidents were made in the United States. According to the New York Times, munition debris filmed at a strike location was remnants from a GBU-39, a bomb designed and manufactured in the United States. U.S. officials have been pushing Israel to use this type of bomb, which they say can reduce civilian casualties.
Meanwhile, the pier constructed by the United States along Gaza’s Mediterranean coastline broke apart due to difficult operating conditions. In a setback to the Biden Administration’s efforts, the $320 million pier has not delivered significant humanitarian relief. Earlier in May, it was reported that crowds of people intercepted almost all the aid delivered via the pier. The administration stated that the pier will be back in operation soon.
In spite of the June 8 successful hostage rescue operation, Netanyahu continues to navigate Israel’s increasingly complex political environment as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two moderate former generals who have served on Israel’s War Cabinet since the October 7 attack, announced their resignation on June 9 in response to Netanyahu’s inability, so far, to develop a comprehensive strategy to end the war.
As the conflict continues, negotiators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt have been mediating a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. In late May, Biden announced anew Israeli proposal to end the war, withdraw Israeli forces from population centers, and release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages held by Hamas in a three-phase approach. The offer has reportedly been delivered to Hamas, but Hamas officials state the proposal is different than what President Biden stated, making its acceptance by Hamas unlikely at this time.
Iran has approved six candidates for the June presidential elections to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. The election will take place on June 28. Most of the candidates are hardline conservative and notably, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was barred from running. This process ensures that all candidates will adhere to the Supreme Leader’s vision for Iran.
The next Iranian President will assume office while relations between Iran and the West are at its tensest point in years. Iran is on the threshold of nuclear weapons and has constrained international inspections. An E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) led effort at the International Atomic Energy Agency to censure Tehran for its nuclear activities passed last week with Washington’s support after the Biden administration reportedly trying to rally support to kill the measure. Iran’s continues to supply Russia with drones for its invasion of Ukraine and is supplying its proxy groups to attack U.S. and Israeli forces in the Middle East and disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea.
Ukraine
On May 10, Russia began a new offensive aimed at Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in the Northeast part of the country. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second largest city and has been the location of intense fighting since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022.
Over the past month, Ukraine has lost at least 13 towns and villages in the Kharkiv region to Russia’s offensive. Ukraine’s forces have reported ammunition and troops shortages, which were likely exacerbated by delayed authorization of military aid from the United States and European countries. Similarly, Kyiv has complained that the military aid it has received has restrictions where sponsor countries, like the United States, are not permitting Ukraine to use these weapons to strike back on Russian forces that are operating across the border on Russian territory. Ukrainian President Zelensky and senior Ukrainian military officials had become increasingly vocal, arguing the restrictions were making Ukraine’s defense of Kharkiv untenable.
For months, leaders of NATO countries, notably President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz, have warned against allowing Ukraine to use western supplied weapons to strike Russian territory for fear it may incite escalatory measures from Moscow on NATO territory. At the end of May, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Schultz indicated in a joint statement that Ukraine should be allowed to strike Russian territory using western weapons in order to defend the Kharkiv region. Shortly thereafter, President Biden endorsed the idea and reportedly gave Kyiv such permission.
Concerns that Russian forces may achieve a considerable breakthrough in the Kharkiv region have prompted discussions among NATO countries of deploying troops in the Western part of Ukraine in advisory only roles to dissuade Russia from moving too far westward. France and Lithuania are two notable countries that have floated the idea while cautioning that such a move is not imminent. In May France announced that it would send military trainers to Ukraine in the near future. Moscow responded to the announcement by threatening escalation and targeting those forces.
In early June, President Zelensky attended a series of events with western leaders in Normandy, France to mark the 80thanniversary of D-Day. President Biden and President Zelensky met briefly on the margins of the commemoration ceremony. Biden reportedly apologized to Zelensky for the delay in U.S. assistance to Ukraine, stating, “I apologize for the weeks of not knowing what was going to pass, in terms of funding, because we had trouble getting the bill that we had to pass, that had the money in it. Some of our very conservative members were holding it up. You are the bulwark against the aggression that is taking place. We’re still in. Completely. Thoroughly.” Zelensky reportedly thanked Biden for his support and compared U.S. assistance to the fight against Nazi Germany in WWII.
AGS will continue to monitor related security developments in the region and provide relevant updates.
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